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The Caliphs Numbers Conflict

Updated: Jun 21

In the name of Allah, Most Gracious, Ever Merciful

In the present time, the most significant conflict within the ahmadiyya muslim jama'at is that different official representatives of the nizam (organisation) have been making disparate claims about the number of members for over a decade, as evident from the links provided in the 'Evidence' section below (adapted mainly from a wikipedia article; a couple of the links are broken, but the vast majority of them still work).

The Evidence:

2004: khuddamul ahmadiyya UK released a magazine which states: "During his 21 year period of khilafat, the seed of Ahmadiyyat the true Islam had been sown in many new countries, making 175 countries in total and the jama’at expanded from 10 million to over 180 million . He passed away on 19th April 2003 aged 74." (source: http://www.alislam.org/library/periodicals/tariq-uk/chapter1.pdf, Page 14)

2004: The jama'at released a book, it says: "hadrat mirza tahir ahmad (1928-2003) ... was loved and devoutly followed by his approximately 10 million ahmadi muslim followers all over the world as their Imam..." (source: http://www.alislam.org/library/books/muslims/with-love-to-Muslims.pdf, Page 3)

2005: The jama'at released two books which says 10 million follower worldwide (source: http://www.alislam.org/library/books/WasAhmadiyyaJamaatPlantedByBritish.pdf, Page 3, and: http://www.alislam.org/library/books/Apostasy-in-Islam.pdf, Page 5)

2005: The jama'at released a press release, it says 200 million worldwide (source: http://www.alislam.org/London-Bombings-Resources/Press-Release-London-Bombings.pdf)

2006: The jama'at released a press release and said again 200 million worldwide (source: http://www.alislam.org/press-release/profanity-feb3-06.pdf)

2007: The ahmadiyya jama'at Canada released an article, it says 10 million worldwide (Source: http://www.ahmadiyya.ca/jalsa/topstories.php?StoryId=10)

2008: The ahmadiyya jama'at in Sri Lanka released a press release, it says 220 million worldwide (source: http://www.lankaweb.com/news/items08/230208-2.html)

2008: On 14th June 2008 the fifth khalifa said in an interview, that there are 70 million followers worldwide (source: http://alislam.org/khilafat/fifth/preaching%20peace.pdf)

2008: On 2nd December 2008 the fifth khalifa is reported to have said in another interview that there are 170 million followers worldwide (source: http://www.hindu.com/2008/12/02/stories/2008120253950400.htm)

2009: The jama'at released a press released, it says 80 million worldwide (source: http://www.alislam.org/egazette/press-release/muslim-leader-urges-peaceful-propagation-of-islam/)

2009: The ahmadiyya jama'at USA says in an article "tens of millions" worldwide (source: http://www.ahmadiyya.us/about-ahmadiyya-muslim-community)

2010: The ahmadiyya jama'at in New Zealand released a press release, it says "tens of millions" worldwide (source: http://www.ahmadiyya.org.nz/index.php?option=com_docman&task=doc_download&gid=18&Itemid=)

2011: The ahmadiyya jama'at in Germany released an article and says "several millions" worldwide (source: http://www.ahmadiyya-islam.org/de/news/artikel/date/2011/12/02/liebe-fuer-alle-hass-fuer-keinen-islamische-reformgemeinde-startet-plakataktion/)

2011: The ahmadiyya jama'at UK Website "LoveForAllHatredForNone.org" and a press release of ahmadiyya jama'at UK says 160 millions worldwide (source: http://www.loveforallhatredfornone.org/portfolio-item/community-relations-not-harmed-by-77/ and: http://www.prnewswire.co.uk/news-releases/consumer-technology-latest-news/muslims-launch-new-peace-campaign-in-britain-153738465.html)

2012: The ahmadiyya jama'at USA released a press release, it says "tens of millions" worldwide (source: http://www.ahmadiyya.us/documents/doc_download/915-20120208-release-sikh-temple-vandalism)

2012: http://www.alislam.org/library/books/Apostasy-in-Islam.pdf, Page 5: Approximately 10 Million 2013: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DJamgVlvnOc (May 24, 2013: at least 150, 160 million - CBC Canada interview. The statement 'hundreds of millions' was made in the interview at 16:35-39 minutes into the interview, and then 18:45-55, he claims many millions; and at 19:00-19:05, he says 'at least 150, 160 milion':  )

The underlying cause of these contradictory claims made by representatives of the nizam publicly belying one another may be considered by some as being far too sensitive to discuss it openly at this point in time, but that should not prevent ahmadis inclining towards monotheism, and officially admitting and correcting the 'errors'. Unfortunately, it has become the 'elephant in the room' for (some/many) ahmadis in our time. There is no real benefit in denying the reality, hoping the problem will go away by itself. It is more likely to become an even bigger issue if left like a festering wound, given that ex-ahmadis and many non-Ahmadis know about it. 

Sincere Believing Ahmadis ought to rectify and learn from this big mistake, so that the same sort of error is not repeated at the beginning of the 3rd century of the Movement. What is noteworthy, is that 3 books officially published by the Jama'at (2004/05) and an article by the Canadian Jama'at (2007) declared the figure of about 10 million soon after the demise of mirza tahir sahib, seemingly unaffected by the boastful lies and deceit. This guide on how to sort truth from falsehood might help the others to acquire some beneficial knowledge in this regard:


An excerpt:

"... we are defining “fake news” as those news stories that are false: the story itself is fabricated, with no verifiable facts, sources or quotes."

Hadrat Khalifa-tul-Masih II r.a. stated: "I have been asked to state why I believe in Islam. When I put the question to myself, the reply I received was, for the same reason for which I believe in anything else, that is to say, because it is the truth." 

[Source: https://www.alislam.org/library/articles/why-i-believe-in-islam/

The decade of increasingly dubious claims about new baia'at numbers: 

1st International Ba’iat 1992/93 204,308

2nd International Ba’iat 1993/94 418,206

3rd International Ba’iat 1994/95 845,294

4th International Ba’iat 1995/96 1,602,721

5th International Ba’iat 1996/97 3,004,584

6th International Ba’iat 1997/98 5,004,591

7th International Ba’iat 1998/99 10,820,226

8th International Ba’iat 1999/00 41,308,376

9th International Ba’iat 2000/01 81,006,731

10th International Ba’iat 2001/02 20,654,000

[Source: https://www.alislam.org/library/periodicals/tariq-uk/chapter2.pdf#page=14]

In 2001, mirza tahir sahib had boasted that there were over 40 million new Ahmadis in India alone:


[2:10] "In their hearts was a disease, and Allah has increased their disease to them; and for them is a grievous punishment because they lied."

Some ahmadis claim that these numbers were based on false reports forged by missionaries and presidents (umaraa) and other officials in high positions (who were appointed by the supposedly 'divinely guided' caliph himself, by the way). Whilst this excuse might also be considered, why wasn't mirza tahir sahib able to discern truth from manifest falsehood, and why he wasn't guided aright by Allah if he was indeed appointed by Allah as Khalifa according to the prevalent spoon-fed dogma; with some even imagining that God guides him in what he utters during personal mulaqaat etc. It also doesn't explain why such incredible claims were not made by his succcessor mirza masroor sahib, with the previously proclaimed numbers of 'tens of millions' dropping drastically to less than 1 million from 2003 onwards, as evident from this link:


The annual converts figures have been removed from wikipedia. However, they are still visible in the history of the wikipedia page. They were taken from the Daily AlFazl Rabwah, and are as follows:

2003: 892,403

2004: 304,910

2005: 209.799

2006: 293,881

2007: 261,969

2008: 354,638

2009: 416,010

2010: 458,760

2011: 480,822

2012: 522,352

2013: 540,782

2014: 555,235

2015: 567,330

Total: 5,858,891

The official figures for 2016 and 2017 were 584,000 and 609,000, giving us a total figure of around 7.6 million converts from 2003-2017. A lower estimate of 16 million by mirza masroor sahib in October 2017 would mean that there were around 8.4 million Ahmadis in the world when he became khalifa, or around 12.4 million if we take his upper estimate of 20 million. In other words, according to mirza masroor sahib, the figures of mirza tahir sahib were false. Moreover, 3 books officially published over this time period and still available on alislam.org stated the 1980's estimate of approximately 10 million - upon which ahmadis had been united - as evident from the list of links given above.


Some people start to make personal attacks, as I have experienced, after being unable to explain away the manifest public belying of one another by nizam officials for over a decade, but they should realise that this is a sign of admission on their part that this objection is a truthful one. The commentary on verse [8:31], (numbered as [8:32] in Ahmadiyya copies of the Holy Qur'an), is worth reading:


As it states, true righteous believers are granted an ability to discern truth from falsehood, and '... they do not blindly believe in the truth of their religion'.

Inculcating blind faith and unconditional obedience to religious personalities or organisations leads to ignorance, falsehood, wrongdoing, and also encourages abuse of power, and eventually, mullah-ism.

Khalifatul-Masih II r.a. publicly admonished ahmadis in a sermon of 1950: 

"... some people in the Jama'at have now reached the stage in their exaggeration that, when saying how many they are, they give a figure of up to two and a half million. ... The falsehood which is now uttered, that we number two and a half million, has no advantage but instead leads to two drawbacks. One is that the man who says this, gives up propagation work because he thinks that there are two and a half million people doing this work, and so it makes no difference if he does not do it. The second drawback is that such a man is slow to pay his contributions because he thinks that there are two and a half million people contributing, and so it makes no difference if he does not pay his contributions." (Friday sermon 18th August 1950, Al-Fazl, 5th September 1950).

The original Urdu sermon can be read here - pages 4-7 are particularly relevant:


A hadith worth pondering over:

Abdullah ibn Mas’ud r.a. relates that the Holy Prophet s.a. said: Truth guides to virtue and virtue guides to Paradise. A person persists in telling the truth till in the sight of Allah he is named Truthful. Lying leads to vice and vice leads to the Fire; and a person goes on lying till in the sight of Allah he is named a liar (Bukhari and Muslim).

A relevant verse of the Holy Qur'an:

[33:24] “That God may reward the truthful for their truthfulness, and punish the hypocrites if He wills, or turn mercifully towards them...”

Hadhrat Mirza Ghulam Ahmad a.s. had advised the Community:

"It is not necessary for me to admonish you not to commit murder for no one except a wholly wicked person advances towards murder. But I do admonish you that you should not insist upon injustice and thus slay the truth. Accept the truth even if it should proceed from a child. If you find your opponent uttering the truth then immediately give up your dry logic. Adhere to the truth and bear true witness.

God the Glorious, says:

i.e. "Shun the abomination of idols and shun all words of falsehood" [Al-Hajj, 22:30] because falsehood is no less than an idol. That which turns you away from the Qiblah of truth is an idol in your path." [Izala-e-Auham, Ruhani Khaza’in, vol. 3, pp. 546-550, Essence of Islam Vol 4, p. 248, 249] 

Unfortunately, both the first (shirrk) and second (falsehood) of the ten conditions of bai'at to the Promised Messiah a.s. have been violated. Due to this, one may propose a new slogan/goal for the nizam, something it ought to dispassionately strive towards: 

"Truth for All, Lies For None." 

But not merely something to be used as a hollow marketing slogan, with apparent truth displayed on the surface, but lies behind it and within; though that would be a superficial improvement from the situation at the moment, i.e. that of lies within, and lies on the surface (re: the numbers fiasco). 

If this newly prescribed slogan is adhered to, then we might be able to hope for witnessing what we are told happened in the case of: 

[3:103] And hold fast, all together, to the rope of Allah and be not divided; and remember the favour of Allah which He bestowed upon you when you were enemies and He united your hearts in love, so that by His grace you became as brothers; and you were on the brink of a pit of fire and He saved you from it. Thus does Allah explain to you His commandments that you may be guided.

The rope of Allah is principally the Noble Qur'an, and then it may secondarily apply to.someone who adheres to the Rope of Allah, as the Holy Prophet Muhammad s.a. became like a rope for his Companions r.a., and Abubakr Siddiq r.a. likewise, due to their faith and truthfulness, for Allah is Al-Haqq, and so also is His Word. 

[10:36] "And most of them follow only conjecture. Surely, conjecture avails naught against the truth. Verily, ALLAH is well aware of what they do."

Those who insist on upholding the disparate numbers which are so manifestly false, instead of just being speculative, can neither themselves be united, nor can they be inviting others towards the truth. So, once again, I highly recommend becoming dispassionate and practically adopting the slogan of: 

"Truth for All, Lies For None." 

From my study of the Qur'an, it appears to go an even longer way than: 

"Love for All, Hatred For None."

Both need to be taught and emphasised, as both were noticeably being violated from 1989 onwards; tokenism does not change the reality of the officially promoted attitudes. If the 'caliph' is not concerned in the least about the falsification of the Jama'at resulting from upholding blatant falsehoods for 30 years or so, despite the 4th one having referred to the emotive case of the actual mother of the child crying out that she would rather that her child be given to 'the false mother' than it's body become split into two halves, and is only in love with his own voice, such that people should give him respect and listen to his speeches consisting of little or no reference to the Holy Qur'an, with no real awareness of the needs of the ummah in our era, or even an evident desire to be concerned about then, then other ahmadis should take it on themselves to set right the alarming state of affairs in the Jama'at.  Two or three Atfal have already somehow extracted it out of him in a 'gulshan-e-waqfe-nau' class in Mahmud Hall that neither angels nor God speak to him, as shown on mta international around September 2018, for had he claimed it was so, he might have been questioned further about what was said to him, and then the falsehood might well have become evident. So, his confusion is apparent, in that he doesn't know how to cover up the 'numbers fiasco', a legacy he inherited from the one like him before him, or it might even trump what was described as the 'worst cover-up in history' if he tries to do something similar. The question may be asked whether some ahmadis likewise protecting wrongdoers for some personal interest or gain, so what excuses would you offer? The 'imam' can be questioned as to why he has been giving a shoulder to 'hitler' over the decades, whilst giving cold shoulders to others, and also whether he, or any of 'the big men', see any difference between 2 million and 220 million. 

I note from memory that mirza masroor sahib had claimed in a sermon following the May 2010 terrorist attacks at the ahmadiyya mosques in Lahore that ahmadis were not shaken by the terrorism (I can't recall his precise words right now), even though the pictures and videos showed them being terrified by it, as one would expect from people reacting to acts of sunni, or to any other group perpetrating the atrocity of terrorism. Why would ahmadis, even if they were seemingly unaffected by the manifest arrogance and lies of the nizam for 20 years till then, remain unaffected by terrorism involving bloodshed and murder of their fellows and relatives? It is normal and natural to be shaken by terrorism, but it is not a sign of true faith to increase in the uttering of falsehoods in public. 

He had also claimed victory in a debate with two atheists in which an 'ahmadi missionary' had publicly denied the existence of a hadith. Instead of foolishly condoning public dishonesty which can't be hidden anyway, it would have been better to admonish the missionary involved, advising tawbah and istighfaar, and openly admitting that the statement was not truthful, for the hadith does in fact exist, so that other missionaries and officials who are in official positions in the nizam of the Jama'at would not be further emboldened and encouraged to utter falsehood/s with impunity. The problem might have been that he also found it difficult to admonish uttering the truth, given that he himself was endorsing rather than rectifying the numbers fiasco. It's been a case of (Urdu) 'jhoot pae jhoot' i.e. lie upon lie.  The debate with the atheists mentioned above can be watched here: 


The question is asked at 1:25:35 mins, and maryam's reaction of incredulity was because the trained official missionary and representative of the supposed 'divinely guided caliph' glaringly lied by saying 'no', when the truthful answer was 'yes'. This was bad enough coming from the official representative of a caliph who would proclaim that he holds the keys to paradise. What made it worse was that the supposedly divinely guided caliph did not correct his error and make him apologise for lying publicly, but gave him a 'well done' or 'congratulations' in a subsequent friday sermon [citation/link needed], proclaiming him as the victor. Laa hawla wa laa quwwata illa billaah. 

It was the most irresponsible and wrong thing to do, for it openly encouraged telling lies. The truth is that he lost the debate on that one point alone, if nothing else. One should openly acknowledge the truth, which is that the so-called 'shari'ah law' as promoted by the fiqh (jurisprudence) developed by sunni and shi'a scholars over the centuries contains numerous criminal elements which violate the truths, justice and rights which are evident in the Qur'an, as well as being in contravention of international human rights. 

The righteous, straight-forward and truthful answer was 'yes', whether he knew how to deal effectively with the problem or not. In my view, the issue is resolved by pointing out that as those ahadith are in complete contradiction of the Qur'an, which prescribed flogging [24:2], it is a completely academic exercise (i.e. of no practical value) to try to determine whether they are true or false. We can't act on them either way. We are compelled to discard them, if we are true Believing Monotheist Muslims. 

I gave an opportunity to Ayaz Khan Sahib to review his answer in a question-answer session held in Oxford on 24th March 2019, but he re-iterated his position and insisted his answer was correct. Laa hawla wa laa quwwata illa billaah.

So, my suggestion that the truth was extracted out of mirza masroor sahib by the boys should not appear odd to anyone who has witnessed these and other such dishonest public proclamations of the 4th and 5th 'caliphs'. 

I went and asked mirza masroor sahib himself about the numbers fiasco in October 2017 during a mulaqaat (meeting in his office). When I mentioned the contradiction between official announcements, some saying 'tens of millions', others saying 'over 200 million', he said 'I don't say 150 million', which he had said in his CBC interview: 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DJamgVlvnOc (May 24, 2013: at least 150, 160 million - CBC Canada interview. The statement 'hundreds of millions' was made in the interview at 16:35-39 minutes into the interview, and then 18:45-55, he claims many millions; and at 19:00-19:05, he says 'at least 150, 160 milion'.)

I asked him what the numbers were, and he replied '16-20 million'. I said 'but 'tens of millions' starts from 20 million, upon which he replied 'millions'. After this, he changed the subject, and when taking a photograph, he twisted my hand at the wrist, and held it hard, suggesting he was upset with my questioning him on the numbers fiasco. But he didn't care to do anything about it for over a year. If he was divinely guided, why the numbers' fiasco? He has himself denied receiving revelation (wahi):


Some months prior to the afore-mentioned meeting, I raised the numbers fiasco issue in an ahmadi meeting of the Outreach and New Ahmadis Departments, as well as in another meeting some months after this, pointing out that a senior official of the nizam had said that if the nizam asks someone to tell a lie, he should do so.

I raised the issue again in another ahmadi meeting on 'fake news' in mid-December 2018. A few months ago, I asked a senior official who was present in one of those meetings as regards what the numbers were now, and he stubbornly replied 'whatever we tell you now'. Can anyone reasonably suggest I should have tried more to resolve the issue within the jama'at, whose nizam and it's officials remains obdurate and authoritarian, expecting members to keep contributing their time and money etc. to a lost cause, to resolve it, before mentioning it publicly? 

(Please also read my article on 'Ahmadiyya Conflicts'. Thanks.)

(This article is being developed)

[19:76] Allah increases in guidance those who follow the guidance. [20:47] Peace be upon those who follow the guidance.


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